Given the anectodal evidence from Delhi and some micro survey presenting the results of this mechanism of social inclusion, I am inclined to endorse these reservations.  (more…)

 Organised retail takes a bashing in the slowdown… (more…)

The underlying reasons for the  failure of the professionals are classic behavioral psychology: they like to stay close to the crowd; and their forecasts tend to extrapolate from recent past performance (more…)

The knives are out for forecasters and predictions (more…)

Pessimism has engulfed Indian organized sector in a loving embrace. I am hearing all sorts of stories.  Ad spends are down, new jobs are down, banks are taking another look at credit commitments, companies are controlling employee benefits, biz travel is down, and hotel rooms are empty.  And the strangest part of the story is that there is no reason to be so scared.  No bank is going down in India.  Yes real estate will level, but that sector has such a large black wealth component (an economy that never goes down) that it just wont crash.  Yes, its time to tighten the belt, but no need to kill yourself doing so.  And MNCs appear to be the most scared.

No need to tighten up so much in India.  The demographic dividend is still here, english is prospering, democracy continues to rule, and costs are now reducing.  What made India sexy last year, is still around.